( Copyright G Kumar -05/10/2003 )
"Fortune favours the brave " - ( Nivasanthi Parakramasraya Na Vishadena Samam Samriddhaya ).
' High risk, high returns ' - this equation characterise the stock markets. It is clear that without taking calculated risks, one cannot develop in business.
The transit of the North Node, Rahu, which rules gambling is very important in the stock market equation. This planet rules all risk taking ventures. If the North Node is favourable and if Jupiter is indeed benevolent in a favourable house, one can go ahead and take calculated risks.
The North Node is in India's 10th and Jupiter in the second ( Cancer, Lunar Ascendant ). The Sensex ( 4552.92 ) and Rupee ( 45.40 ) have hit 38 month peaks ! Forex reserves have gone past $ 89 billion and may touch $ 100 b soon. Auto and automotive components exports have registered phenomenal growth, along with software and steel. Foreign investors averr that India is the best emerging market. FII inflows have crossed $ 14 b and the share market is poised to rise ! India, in contrast to China, has got good English language skills and better software skills. Foreigners relish working in India than in China, because of the language problem. The Indian stock markets are computerised and transparent. There are less scams. It is true that turnover on the NSE ( maximum $ 1 billion a day ) are way behind the turnover of London Stock Exchange ( $ 1000 b ) or New York ( $ 1000 b ) ( $ 1 b - Rs 4500 crores ). But it is only a matter of time that NSE and BSE catches up with LSE & NYSE ( at PPP estimates ).
The negative points that must be noted, are however, Mars in the 8th and Saturn in the 12th. These 2 planets are dragging and retarding progress. The adverse positions of these 2 are responsible for the sudden dips ( Sensex down to 4105 from 4469 ) and a feeling of anxiety and fear amongst the investor population. In Forex market also, Rupee is continuing its bull run against the greenback but there was a sudden dip earlier.
Venus moving over to Libra and Mercury getting exalted in Virgo will only improve the market. We have to remember that small declines are healthy as the market is continuing its bull run. ( Now there are no 500 point rises as in Harshad Mehta's time ). Saturn and Mars are the villains and we have to be cautious all the time.
" The smartness of the operator lies in booking loss and not in booking profit " . What does it mean ?
It is common experience that when we sell a scrip, it goes up ! When we buy a share, it goes down ! If the market is going to rise, we should hold on. ( In Technical Analysis, a bull run is characterised by rising Resistance and Support levels ). I bought SAIL three years back at 13.70. It declined to 8 and last month I sold it for 40! If you invest in a fundamentally sound scrip, there is no risk in holding on ! One should invest only in potential winners ! ( Another example was ICICI Bank. I bought it for 35. It declined to 18 and I sold it after 1 year at 151 ! ). One should not panic when the share one bought declines ! Nor when the share one sells goes up ! We do not control the market ! If you understand this, you will come to know that smartness is loss booking and not profit booking !
I bought SBI at 420 and sold it off at 449, bought Reliance at 408 and sold it off at 432, Infosys at 4512 and sold it off at 4633, ICICI Bank at 194 and sold it off at 207 & GACL at 219 and sold it off at 230. I am not bothered if it goes up. I booked profit. In the present situation, it appears as booking loss as the prices of these scrips have gone up !
( On the occult side, I protected myself by chanting the Karthiaveeryarjuna Mantra and wearing an Ohari Vipanana Vijayaprada Yantra, made by a Brahmin Tantric friend. Here is the K V Mantra.
Rajah Bahu Sahasravan
Tasya Samsmaranath Eva
Hritham Nashtam cha Labhyathe )
The Irrational Crowd & the Contrarian Investor
We have to understand that man is an irrational animal( Russell ) ( in direct contrast to the classical definition of man as a rational animal ) . The crowd is irrational and sentimental. During boom, all men view the market with rose-tainted glass thinking that the boom will last forever. No boom lasts for ever. Based on the bullish reports given by the media, the crowd pushes the market up. During a bear hug, the reverse happens. Crowds take the market to unjustifiably low levels. The irrational crowd is sentimental, not fundamental. A scrip is either underpriced or overpriced. It is overpriced in a bullish market and underpriced in a bearish market. Understand that the Market is cyclical and take advantage of booms and busts !
Insulate yourself from the contagion of the crowd. Being part of the crowd will get you nowhere. Book profits every now and then. Be a contrarian !
Knowledge - A criterion for success
Good ideas and good research are an absolute necessity in the market place. The market is not a roulette wheel. There is no substitute for Information. Along with Knowledge, hard work is called for. One should be alert and work hard for success. Fortune indeed favours the industrious !
Women are won by wooing
Fortune is won the same
Sure there will be lots of trouble
Sure there will be heaps of cares
Burdens that bend us double
Worries that come to wear
But we must still be pursuing
Something to see us through !
We recommend buying TISCO, Infosys, United Phosphorus, CMC, GAIL, Auro Pharma at their current support levels. Since the Sensex is at 4553, wait for the market to dip and buy these at their support levels. A reaction is expected at any time. A loss of 400 points to the Sensex can happen at any moment. On should wait for the market to decline and then enter at the current support level of the Sensex. Some scrips are moving sideways ( that is when the Sensex goes up, some scrips are coming down ). Such movements are to be expected. But, by and large, most of the cyclicals move up when the market goes up and comes down when the market comes down.
Please check the position of Rahu and Jupiter in your chart and their transits. People with Taurus as their Moon Sign should be careful, as Rahu is in the 12th. People with Virgo as their Moon Sign should also be cautious as Jupiter is in the adverse 12th. Rahu ( gambling ) and Jupiter ( Divine Grace ) are king makers !