" He who will study values and market conditions and exercises one man's intelligence and known patience for six men, will make money in stocks " - Dow Jones
Stock Market Astrology Part I
( written on 01/09/2003 )
Cancer, India's Lunar Ascendant
India's birth constellation is Pushya and India is undergoing the dreaded Elarata Saturnine phase.
India's Independence Chart ( 15/08/1947, 00.00 AM, Delhi )
|Asc Rah||Gul Mar|
|Rasi||SunMer Moo Ven Sat|
We have said in our Financial Astrology Page that the Indian Stock Market will go upto 6000. But the path to 6000 will not be easy. There will be vicious fluctuations and cyclical upheavals. There will be many small booms and busts in the market. This is because of the Elarata Saturn which India is undergoing.
The Stock Market revived due to Jupiter 's transit of the 2nd. Jupiter, the planet of finance, can uplift the economy during his second transit. No wonder the media is talking about the 4.3 % agricultural growth, the 6.5 % G D P growth and the good monsoon which triggered it, Sensex above 4200, and the growth of sectors which record more than 30% growth - software, steel , auto & automotive components !
Small booms and busts are to be expected. The Wave Theory still holds good in stocks. The Sensex dipped after it touched 4469 and touched 4134, a loss of 335 points. But bull run means rising resistance and support levels. The earlier support level was 3950 and now it is 4105. The resistance level of 4469 will be overtaken when the market overcomes that level in the next small bull run.
Correlation between Stock Market Cycles & Jupiterian Cycles
The last boom was when Jupiter was in the 11th in India's horoscope ( 2001 ).Jupiter was in the adverse 12th and 1st in the next 2 years and we had the Stock Market in a state of Recession. Now with Jupiter in the favourable 2nd, we can expect the stock market to move up considerably.
This is the quintessence of the stock market. " Buy when everybody is selling, sell when everybody is buying", which in essence means " Buy cheap, sell dear".
We have to understand the negative aspect of the secondary market. The secondary market, taken in isolation and as a closed system, is basically a zero sum game. When a man sells a share, either the buyer or the seller has made a mistake. Money only changes hands. So smart investing is Contrarian Investing, buying at unjustifiably low levels and selling at unjustifiably high levels ! There is no such thing as an Intrinsic Value for a share. Markets are always irrational, unpredictable and fluctuating. There will be intra-day fluctuations, intra-week fluctuations and intra-month fluctuations. Within the Bull Phase and the Bear Phase, there will be small booms and busts, making it difficult to predict the future. There are two ways to combat these types of uncertain fluctuations - Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis
This is drawing the graph of the Index every day. All scrips display regular and recurrent patterns of price behaviour. During the last boom of 2001, the Sensex touched 6000, emulating the earlier boom. You will come to know about the resistance & support levels of the Sensex and all scrips if you take regular graphs. Graphs can be made in Excel.
F A is studying the fundamentals of scrips - the Book Value of a share, the Price/Earnings of a share, the EPS of a share and then investing based on these fundamentals. You can buy the highly potential shares at their support levels.
The Cyclical Nature of the Stock Market & Business Cycles
The Business Cycles of Boom and Recession rule all markets. A boom means that the economy has extended itself and a Recession becomes due to restore it to its original balance. The Business Cycles of Prosperity and Adversity come to all men.
We find that all markets are cyclical and the Stock Market is the most volatile of all markets. During the 1992 boom, the Sensex reached 4000 and then it crashed to 2000 odd. During the Ketan Parekh initiated bull run of 2001, it reached 6151 !. The current boom may very well surpass that level ! Slowly and steadily the crowd is getting involved and all sorts of bullish news are given by the media. It is paradoxical that during Bull Phases all sorts of bullish news come from the media and during Bear Phases, only bearish news !
Scrips which are worth investing are IOC, ONGC, SBI, Dr Reddy's, Ranbaxy, CIPLA, Lupin, Tata Motors, HPCL, BPCL, IBP, Infosys, Hughes Software, HCL Infosys, G A C L etc.